Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture No. 3/09
A micro-econometric analysis of the impact of climate change on livestock management in South America
S. Niggol Seo
Basque Center for Climate Change, Bilbao, Spain
Abstract
This paper examines the vulnerability of South American livestock
management to climate change using the data collected in Argentina and
Brazil, the world’s largest beef cattle exporters and consumers. We use
a micro-econometric method to explain the choice of a livestock species
and the value of the chosen species. The results indicate that famers
substitute dairy cattle or crops for beef cattle if climate becomes hot
under the CCC scenario. The beef cattle value would fall by 47% by
2060. With smaller offsetting gain in dairy cattle, the total value of
livestock in South America is expected to fall by 42% half a century
later. If farmers cannot switch species, the loss would increase to
47%. Under a mild and wet PCM scenario, farmers would switch to crops
more often and the value of beef cattle value would decline
slightly.
Keywords: climate change, livestock, beef cattle, micro-econometrics, South America
JEL: Q54
Vol. 48 (2009), No. 3: 265-282