Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin - Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture

Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture No. 3/06

Agriculture-led development in rural Vietnam: a decomposed SAM multiplier model

Clemens Breisinger and Olivier Ecker
University of Hohenheim, Germany


Despite Vietnam’s overall economic success, disadvantaged regions and groups have been left behind in the growth and poverty reduction process. Specific economic policies are therefore required to include these regions and groups in the national socio-economic development. In this context, the identification and characterisation of key sectors and sub-sectors for regional growth is central for inclusive development strategies.

In this paper, we model agriculture’s impact on regional development using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for a mountainous province in northwest Vietnam. Results of the SAM-based multiplier model indicate that agriculture has the largest potential to drive regional economic growth. By decomposing the indirect effects of an increase in gross output, we assess the potential and distributional impact of three major crops on regional development and household income.

Keywords: Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), decomposed multiplier model, agricultural development, regional economy, Vietnam

JEL: C67, O13, R13

Vol. 45 (2006), No. 3: 231-251