Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture No. 3/06
Agriculture-led development in rural Vietnam: a decomposed SAM multiplier model
Clemens Breisinger and Olivier Ecker
University of Hohenheim, Germany
Abstract
Despite Vietnam’s overall economic success, disadvantaged regions and
groups have been left behind in the growth and poverty reduction
process. Specific economic policies are therefore required to include
these regions and groups in the national socio-economic development. In
this context, the identification and characterisation of key sectors
and sub-sectors for regional growth is central for inclusive
development strategies.
In this paper, we model agriculture’s impact on regional development
using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for a mountainous province in
northwest Vietnam. Results of the SAM-based multiplier model indicate
that agriculture has the largest potential to drive regional economic
growth. By decomposing the indirect effects of an increase in gross
output, we assess the potential and distributional impact of three
major crops on regional development and household income.
Keywords: Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), decomposed multiplier model, agricultural development, regional economy, Vietnam
JEL: C67, O13, R13
Vol. 45 (2006), No. 3: 231-251