Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin - Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture

Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture No. 3/13

Impacts of Weather Variability and Climate Change on Agricultural Revenues in Central Asia

Alisher Mirzabaev
University of Bonn, Germany


The study evaluates the impact of weather variability on agricultural revenues in the four Central Asian countries using a panel data at the province level for the period of 1990-2010. The net average effects of weather variability are estimated to be less than 1% of total crop production revenues, with variations among the provinces in the region. This result is robust to numerous specification checks. It is believed that the main reason for such relatively low levels of impacts, in addition to good weather years, is evolving adaptive capacities and coping actions by farmers in the region. In most of Central Asia, important year-to-year weather variations are the norm rather than an exception. As a key conclusion, agricultural producers operating in such inherently stressed environments may have more experience to dynamically adapt to erratic and changing environment.

Keywords: weather variability, agricultural revenues, climate change, Central Asia

JEL: Q1, Q54

Vol. 52 (2013), No. 3: 237-252