Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture No. 4/07
Renewable energy in future energy supply:
a renaissance in waiting
Marianne Haug
University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany, and
Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, Oxford, Great Britain
Abstract
Renewable energy has hardly kept pace with global energy supply since
1990, despite two digit growth rates for wind energy, solar PV, and
biofuels and despite ambitious national and regional targets for
renewable energy expansion in a large number of countries. In 2005,
renewables accounted for 12.7% of global energy supply of which more
than half is traditional biomass in developing countries. While global
growth is still stagnating, the composition of renewables is changing
towards “modern” renewables for electricity, heating and transport. The
potential of renewables to supply mankind with energy is huge. No
resource constraints exist for solar, wind, geothermal and wave, but
only a two to three fold expansion of hydro energy is likely, and no
consensus exists about the limits for sustainable bioenergy. Carbon
constraint and market pull policies for renewables should support an
accelerated uptake of renewables in the coming decade as other low
carbon technologies have not yet reached the commercialization stage or
struggle for social acceptance. Over the medium and long-term,
renewables will have to compete not only with fossil fuel, but with new
low or zero carbon technologies or transformatory energy carriers.
Thus, the share of renewables in future energy supply is likely to
reach a plafond as countries aim for diversity, and adopt a mix of
energy policies. Policies – more than cost or resources – will
determine the speed of renewables growth and its overall contribution
to future energy supply in the next decades.
Keywords: renewable energy, bioenergy, scenarios, potentials
JEL: Q 200
Vol. 46 (2007), No. 4: 305-324